Modelling parasite aggregation: Disentangling statistical and ecological approaches

Yakob, Laith; Soares Magalhaes, Ricardo; Gray, Darren; Milinovich, Gabriel; Wardrop, Nicola A; Dunning, Rebecca; Barendregt, Jan; Bieri, Franziska A; Williams, Gail; Clements, Archie

Modelling parasite aggregation: Disentangling statistical and ecological approaches

Date

2014

Authors

Yakob, Laith

Soares Magalhaes, Ricardo

Gray, Darren

Milinovich, Gabriel

Wardrop, Nicola A

Dunning, Rebecca

Barendregt, Jan

Bieri, Franziska A

Williams, Gail

Clements, Archie

Publisher

Elsevier

Abstract

The overdispersion in macroparasite infection intensity among host populations is commonly simulated using a constant negative binomial aggregation parameter. We describe an alternative to utilising the negative binomial approach and demonstrate important disparities in intervention efficacy projections that can come about from opting for pattern-fitting models that are not process-explicit. We present model output in the context of the epidemiology and control of soil-transmitted helminths due to the significant public health burden imposed by these parasites, but our methods are applicable to other infections with demonstrable aggregation in parasite numbers among hosts.