Hierarchical models of simple mechanisms underlying confidence in decision making
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Merkle, Edgar; Smithson, Michael; Verkuilen, Jay
Description
Choice confidence is a central measure in psychological decision research, often being reported on a probabilistic scale. Simple mechanisms that describe the psychological processes underlying choice confidence, including those based on error and confirmation biases, have typically received support via fits to data averaged over subjects. While averaged data ease model development, they can also destroy important aspects of the confidence data distribution. In this paper, we develop a...[Show more]
dc.contributor.author | Merkle, Edgar | |
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dc.contributor.author | Smithson, Michael | |
dc.contributor.author | Verkuilen, Jay | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2015-12-10T23:12:39Z | |
dc.date.available | 2015-12-10T23:12:39Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0022-2496 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1885/64074 | |
dc.description.abstract | Choice confidence is a central measure in psychological decision research, often being reported on a probabilistic scale. Simple mechanisms that describe the psychological processes underlying choice confidence, including those based on error and confirmation biases, have typically received support via fits to data averaged over subjects. While averaged data ease model development, they can also destroy important aspects of the confidence data distribution. In this paper, we develop a hierarchical model of raw confidence judgments using the beta distribution, and we implement two simple confidence mechanisms within it. We use Bayesian methods to fit the hierarchical model to data from a two-alternative confidence experiment, and we use a variety of Bayesian tools to diagnose shortcomings of the simple mechanisms that are overlooked when applied to averaged data. Bugs code for estimating the models is also supplied. | |
dc.publisher | Academic Press | |
dc.source | Journal of Mathematical Psychology | |
dc.subject | Keywords: Bayesian model checking; Confidence; Decision making; Subjective probability | |
dc.title | Hierarchical models of simple mechanisms underlying confidence in decision making | |
dc.type | Journal article | |
local.description.notes | Imported from ARIES | |
local.identifier.citationvolume | 55 | |
dc.date.issued | 2011 | |
local.identifier.absfor | 170113 - Social and Community Psychology | |
local.identifier.ariespublication | f2965xPUB884 | |
local.type.status | Published Version | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Merkle, Edgar, Wichita State University | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Smithson, Michael, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Verkuilen, Jay, City University of New York | |
local.bibliographicCitation.issue | 1 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage | 57 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage | 67 | |
local.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.jmp.2010.08.011 | |
local.identifier.absseo | 970117 - Expanding Knowledge in Psychology and Cognitive Sciences | |
dc.date.updated | 2016-02-24T08:33:40Z | |
local.identifier.scopusID | 2-s2.0-79551619759 | |
local.identifier.thomsonID | 000287570500006 | |
Collections | ANU Research Publications |
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