Belarus, Ukraine and Russia: East or West?

Abstract

Belarus and Ukraine are 'lands in between', pulled by their language, religion and history towards the west but also towards the former Soviet republics in the east with which they were for so long associated. The evidence of national representative surveys between 2000 and 2010 suggests that feelings of 'Europeanness' have been declining, as is also the case in Russia; so has the wish to join the European Union (although it remains a popular option) or NATO. 'Soviet nostalgia' has been declining in parallel, more so in Belarus and Ukraine than in Russia; but there is a strong wish in all three countries to associate more closely within the Commonwealth of Independent States. Cross-tabulating, the evidence suggests that Ukraine is the most sharply polarised between these two foreign policy orientations, and the one in which popular attitudes are most likely to constrain the actions of its governing authorities; more generally, it suggests that a constructivist analysis is particularly appropriate in cases in which rival national security complexes are rooted in domestic cultural divisions and expressed through competing political elites.