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A Scenario Analysis of Climate Change and Ecosystem Services for the Great Barrier

Costanza, Robert; Bohensky, Erin; Butler, JRA; Bohnet, I.C.; Delisle, Aure´ lie; Fabricius, Katharina; Gooch, Margaret; Kubiszewski, Ida; Lukacs, George; Pert, Petina; Wolanski, Eric

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The extent to which nations and regions can actively shape the future or must passively respond to global forces is a topic of relevance to current discourses on climate change, ecosystems services, and human well-being. In Australia, climate change has been identified as the greatest threat to the ecological resilience of the Great Barrier Reef and the multiple ecosystem services it provides, but is exacerbated by regional and local pressures. In this chapter, we discuss previous applications...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorCostanza, Robert
dc.contributor.authorBohensky, Erin
dc.contributor.authorButler, JRA
dc.contributor.authorBohnet, I.C.
dc.contributor.authorDelisle, Aure´ lie
dc.contributor.authorFabricius, Katharina
dc.contributor.authorGooch, Margaret
dc.contributor.authorKubiszewski, Ida
dc.contributor.authorLukacs, George
dc.contributor.authorPert, Petina
dc.contributor.authorWolanski, Eric
dc.contributor.editorWolanski E.
dc.contributor.editorMcLusky D.
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-10T22:12:37Z
dc.identifier.isbn9780123747112
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/49744
dc.description.abstractThe extent to which nations and regions can actively shape the future or must passively respond to global forces is a topic of relevance to current discourses on climate change, ecosystems services, and human well-being. In Australia, climate change has been identified as the greatest threat to the ecological resilience of the Great Barrier Reef and the multiple ecosystem services it provides, but is exacerbated by regional and local pressures. In this chapter, we discuss previous applications of scenario analysis and describe a case study we undertook to explore how two key uncertainties may influence these threats and their impact on the Great Barrier Reef and adjacent catchment�s ecosystem services in the future. These two uncertainties were whether (1) global development and (2) Australian development are defined and pursued primarily in terms of economic growth or broader concepts of human well-being and environmental sustainability, and, in turn, how climate change is managed and mitigated. We compared the implications of four scenarios for marine and terrestrial ecosystem services and human well-being. The results suggest that while regional actions can partially offset global inaction on climate change until about mid-century, there are probable threshold levels for marine ecosystems, beyond which the Great Barrier Reef will become a fundamentally different system by 2100 if climate change is not curtailed. Management that can respond to pressures at both global and regional scales will be needed to maintain the full range of ecosystem services. It is possible to maintain human well-being even while some ecosystem services decline, but only if regional management is strong. The future of the region depends largely on whether national and regional decision makers choose to be active future �makers� or passive future �takers� in responding to global drivers of change. The chapter concludes by discussing potential avenues for using these scenarios for further discussion and consensus building with the Great Barrier Reef region�s stakeholders.
dc.publisherAcademic Press
dc.relation.ispartofTreatise on Estuarine and Coastal Science
dc.relation.isversionof1st Edition
dc.titleA Scenario Analysis of Climate Change and Ecosystem Services for the Great Barrier
dc.typeBook chapter
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
dc.date.issued2011
local.identifier.absfor050101 - Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
local.identifier.absfor050102 - Ecosystem Function
local.identifier.ariespublicationu4430637xPUB191
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationCostanza, Robert, College of Asia and the Pacific, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationBohensky, Erin, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems
local.contributor.affiliationButler, JRA, James Cook University
local.contributor.affiliationBohnet, I.C., CSIRO
local.contributor.affiliationDelisle, Aure´ lie, James Cook University
local.contributor.affiliationFabricius, Katharina, Australian Institute of Marine Science
local.contributor.affiliationGooch, Margaret, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority
local.contributor.affiliationKubiszewski, Ida, College of Asia and the Pacific, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationLukacs, George, James Cook University
local.contributor.affiliationPert, Petina, James Cook University
local.contributor.affiliationWolanski, Eric, Australian Institute of Marine Science
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage305
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage326
local.identifier.doi.1016/B978-0-12-374711-2.01215-8
dc.date.updated2020-11-22T07:35:53Z
local.bibliographicCitation.placeofpublicationLondon, United Kingdom
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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