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Predicting banking crises: Japan's financial crisis in international comparison

Hutchison, Michael; McDill, Kathleen


This article compares features of Japan's banking crisis with the experiences of other industrial economies. Using a probit statistical prediction model, we find that Japan's banking crisis follows a pattern found in many other industrial countries, i.e. formal tests do not distinguish Japan as a special case. Our model predicts that Japan was particularly "vulnerable" to a banking crisis in the early 1990s. That is, the model indicated that there was a 50 percent probability of a banking...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 1999
Type: Working/Technical Paper


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