China's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: A Counterfactual Analysis

Date

2008

Authors

Tyers, Rod
Bain, Iain
Bu, Yongxiang

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Abstract

China's 'equilibrium' real effective exchange rate is explored using an adaptation of the Devarajan-Lewis-Robinson three-good general equilibrium model under a variety of assumptions about the balance of trade. The absence of secondary indices of import and export prices necessitates their construction from trade data. Some undervaluation is suggested in the lead-up to and during the financial crisis, due in part to an extraordinary accumulation of foreign reserves following exchange rate integration in 1994. If, instead, China had run a more typical trade balance prior to the crisis its real effective exchange rate would have been higher by about a tenth.

Description

Keywords

Keywords: balance of trade; export; financial crisis; general equilibrium analysis; import; real exchange rate; three-dimensional modeling; Asia; China; Eurasia; Far East

Citation

Source

Pacific Economic Review

Type

Journal article

Book Title

Entity type

Access Statement

License Rights

Restricted until

2037-12-31