Projecting future utilization of medically assisted fertility treatments
Date
2019-11-08
Authors
Raymer, James
Guan, Qing
Norman, Robert
Ledger, William
Chambers, Georgina
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Publisher
Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group
Abstract
This study estimates the future utilization of medically assisted fertility treatments in Australia, focusing on assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs), intrauterine insemination (IUI), and ovulation induction. A
multistate cohort component population projection model is used to determine future fertility rates from
2016 to 2026 by age and education level. These are combined with information on recent trends in use
and success rates to indirectly estimate future age-specific probabilities of fertility treatment utilization.
The number of ART cycles is expected to increase by 61 per cent between 2016 and 2026 if treatment
success rates remain at 2015 levels, or by 34 per cent if recent improvements in ART success rates
continue. The model also predicts that numbers of IUI cycles and ovulation induction cycles will decrease
by 17 and 3 per cent, respectively. This research confirms the importance of including both technological
improvements and socio-demographic changes when predicting future fertility treatment utilization.
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Citation
James Raymer, Qing Guan, Robert J. Norman, William Ledger & Georgina M. Chambers (2019): Projecting future utilization of medically assisted fertility treatments, Population Studies, DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1676461
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Population Studies
Type
Journal article
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Restricted until
2037-12-31
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