Contagion in International Bond Markets during the Russian and LTCM Crises

Date

2006

Authors

Dungey, Mardi
McKibbin (previously Fry), Renee
Gonzalez-Hermosillo, Brenda
Martin, Vance L

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Elsevier

Abstract

The Russian bond default in August 1998 and the long-term capital management (LTCM) recapitalization announcement in the following month represent an unusual period of volatility in international bond markets with bond spreads increasing dramatically across the globe. Using a latent factor model and a new data set spanning bond markets across Asia, Europe and the Americas, we quantify the contribution of contagion to the spread of these two crises. The maximum amount of contagion experienced by any of the countries investigated is about 17% of total volatility in bond spreads, with the main effects due to the Russian crisis. The results also show that both emerging and developed markets experienced contagion during the period.

Description

Keywords

Keywords: Contagion; Financial crises; Latent factor model; LTCM; Russia; Spillovers

Citation

Source

Journal of Financial Stability

Type

Journal article

Book Title

Entity type

Access Statement

License Rights

Restricted until

2037-12-31