Predictors of injurious falls and fear of falling differ: an 11-year longitudinal study of incident events in older people

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to identify the intrinsic, psychosocial and lifestyle factors, which, over time, predict the incidence of having a fall requiring medical attention (injurious fall) or of acquiring a fear of falling (FOF). METHOD: Data from 1,000 participants in the Melbourne Longitudinal Studies on Healthy Ageing (MELSHA, 1994-2005) were analyzed using cox regressions and hazard ratios. RESULTS: The predictors of injurious falls (n = 900, events = 200) were increasing age, slower gait speed, and being depressed. Main predictors of developing a FOF (n = 855, events =117) were increasing age, cognitive impairment, reduced social activity, and gender. A history of falls at baseline did not predict acquiring a FOF nor did FOF predict a future fall. DISCUSSION: The profile of the person who will have an injurious fall differs from the profile of the person who develops a FOF and should be considered when designing interventions.