Why the climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than weather records suggest
Date
2017
Authors
Glikson, Andrew
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Parkville, Vic. : The Conversation Media Group
Abstract
One of the key questions about climate change is the strength of the
greenhouse effect. In scientific terms this is described as “climate sensitivity”.
It’s defined as the amount Earth’s average temperature will ultimately
rise in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide
levels.
Climate sensitivity has been hard to pin down accurately. Climate models
give a range of 1.5-4.5℃ per doubling of CO₂, whereas historical weather
observations suggest a smaller range of 1.5-3.0℃ per doubling of CO₂.
In a new study published in Science Advances, Cristian Proistosescu and
Peter J. Huybers of Harvard University resolve this discrepancy, by
showing that the models are likely to be right.
According to their statistical analysis, historical weather observations
reveal only a portion of the planet’s full response to rising CO₂ levels. The
true climate sensitivity will only become manifest on a time scale of
centuries, due to effects that researchers call “slow climate feedbacks”.
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The Conversation
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Commentary
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Open Access
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