Why the climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than weather records suggest

Date

2017

Authors

Glikson, Andrew

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Parkville, Vic. : The Conversation Media Group

Abstract

One of the key questions about climate change is the strength of the greenhouse effect. In scientific terms this is described as “climate sensitivity”. It’s defined as the amount Earth’s average temperature will ultimately rise in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Climate sensitivity has been hard to pin down accurately. Climate models give a range of 1.5-4.5℃ per doubling of CO₂, whereas historical weather observations suggest a smaller range of 1.5-3.0℃ per doubling of CO₂. In a new study published in Science Advances, Cristian Proistosescu and Peter J. Huybers of Harvard University resolve this discrepancy, by showing that the models are likely to be right. According to their statistical analysis, historical weather observations reveal only a portion of the planet’s full response to rising CO₂ levels. The true climate sensitivity will only become manifest on a time scale of centuries, due to effects that researchers call “slow climate feedbacks”.

Description

Keywords

Citation

Source

The Conversation

Type

Commentary

Book Title

Entity type

Access Statement

Open Access

License Rights

Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under Creative Commons licence.

DOI

Restricted until