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The waiting time for inter-country spread of pandemic influenza

Caley, Peter; Becker, Niels; Philp, David


BACKGROUND: The time delay between the start of an influenza pandemic and its subsequent initiation in other countries is highly relevant to preparedness planning. We quantify the distribution of this random time in terms of the separate components of this delay, and assess how the delay may be extended by non-pharmaceutical interventions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The model constructed for this time delay accounts for: (i) epidemic growth in the source region, (ii) the delay until an infected...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2007-01-03
Type: Journal article
Source: PLOS ONE (Public Library of Science)
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0000143


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