Estimating health expectancies from two cross-sectional surveys: the intercensal method
Date
2009-10-16
Authors
Guillot, Michael
Yu, Yan
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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Abstract
Health expectancies are key indicators for monitoring the health of populations, as well
as for informing debates about compression or expansion of morbidity. However,
current methodologies for estimating them are not entirely satisfactory. They are either
of limited applicability due to high data requirements (the multistate method) or based
upon questionable assumptions (the Sullivan method).
This paper proposes a new method, called the “intercensal” method, which relies
on the multistate framework using widely available data. The method uses age-specific
proportions “healthy” at two successive, independent cross-sectional health surveys,
and, together with information on general mortality, solves for the set of transition
probabilities that produces the observed sequence of proportions healthy. The system is
solved by making realistic parametric assumptions about the age patterns of transition
probabilities. Using data from the Health and Retirement Survey and from the National
Health Interview Survey, the method is tested against both the multistate method and
the Sullivan method. We conclude that the intercensal approach is a promising
framework for the indirect estimation of health expectancies.
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Keywords
disability, health expectancies, indirect estimation methods, multistate life tables
Citation
Demographic Research 21.17 (2009)
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Demographic Research
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Journal article
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