Past convictions and the probability of guilt

Abstract

This research is a critique of the literature that applies probability analysis to past convictions, in the context of determining guilt in criminal trials. Recent arguments for potentially relaxing rules that exclude past conviction evidence are sustained, but particular flaws and limitations in the likelihoodratio-based theses from Hamer (2019) and Redmayne (2015) are exposed. The critique of Bayesian probabilistic analysis made by Robinson (2020) is largely dismissed. We should aim to foster a continued lively debate in the literature, gather more data, and narrow the distance between those arguing about theoretical probability analysis and those focused on actual courtroom usage of past conviction evidence. Show more