A Systematic Review of Forest Cover for Catchment-Scale Flood Mitigation: A Nature-Based Solution

Abstract

Forest cover within catchments is a widely adopted Nature-based Solution (NbS) for flood mitigation, offering hydrological benefits such as rainfall interception, enhanced infiltration, and reduced overland flow. Despite its recognized potential, quantitative reviews remain limited, especially at the catchment scale, with effectiveness varying by spatial scale, forest type, and climate. This review synthesizes 50 international case studies involving forest-based NbS, selected through structured screening based on intervention type, catchment characteristics, and availability of quantitative flood metrics, and presents a detailed bibliometric and content analysis. Forest cover consistently impacts peak flow across catchments of all sizes, with a generalized linear relationship where the effect magnitude is approximately half the forest cover change. For example, a 20% increase in forest cover tends to reduce peak flow by 10% across small, medium, and large catchments. Across a range of catchment sizes, there are only minor differences in the mean peak flow reductions for different event intensities (up to 1% AEP). An asymmetric hydrological response is evident: deforestation consistently increases peak flows, whereas afforestation yields gradual reductions, which are shaped by forest maturity, spatial distribution, and modeling assumptions. Upstream distributed forest placements offer distinct hydrological benefits. These outcomes highlight the importance of conserving mature forests, preventing deforestation, and optimizing forest placement, while acknowledging potential adverse impacts on water availability during dry periods.