The Palestinians in a Transforming Middle East: Adapting or Stagnating

Abstract

This article examines the profound stagnation and decline confronting the Palestinian national movement in the aftermath of the October 2023 war in Gaza. It argues that Palestinian political fragmentation has coincided with an evolving regional landscape that increasingly sidelines Palestinians. On the international stage, waning US engagement, incremental Arab–Israeli normalization, and the limited roles played by alternative global powers have diminished Palestinian leverage. Within Palestine itself, the entrenched division between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority has blocked the formulation of a coherent national strategy, with neither actor effectively harnessing diplomatic, legal, or geopolitical opportunities. I contend that Israel's post-October 2023 shift to a more expansive and punitive doctrine has further exacerbated Palestinian paralysis, while Arab governments adhere to outdated frameworks ill-equipped to counter Israel's hardened posture. Absent a meaningful recalibration in both leadership and strategy, the Palestinian national movement is facing prolonged marginalization and a deepening crisis of relevance. Show more