Crime, punishment and deterrence in Australia : an empirical investigation / Glenn Withers.

Abstract

This paper provides empirical estimates of the determinants of crime rates in Australia. It differs from most modern criminological analysis by being aggregative rather than offender-based and by deriving from the economic approach to criminal behaviour. Its major finding is that court committals and imprisonments have operated as major deterrent factors in explaining variations in recorded crime rates. Ethnicity and race are also seen to have had significant effects. At the same time nc moaeurable impact is found for the direct econcmic influences of poverty and unemployment nor for the attitudinal influences of education and class status. These results are likely to be controversial. They run counter to certain conventional wisdoms in criminology and they may offend some social values. Nevertheless the deterrence results seem especially strong and robust and those relating to ethnicity and race relatively so. Improved measurement however could alter the findings for the other influences examined. The paper examines the relationship of these research findings to criminal justice policy.