Climate change impacts on human health in the coastal zone

Abstract

Temperatures in Australia are increasing, and rainfall is becoming more variable. Mean surface air temperatures in Australia have warmed by 0.9 C over the last 100 years. Nights have become relatively warmer; overnight minimum temperatures have increased more (1.1 C) than daily maximum temperatures (0.8 C). Rainfall has increased in the north- west but declined in the south-west (winter) and south-east (autumn and winter), and the fire season has increased in length and intensity (CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology 2015). Temperatures will continue to increase over coming decades, with increasing frequency of extreme hot days and decreasing frequency of extreme cold days. There remains some uncertainty about how rainfall will be affected, but it will most likely decrease in the south and especially south-west of Australia (Reisinger et al. 2014). Tropical cyclones in the north will increase in intensity, and fire-risk weather in the south will increase (Reisinger et al. 2014). Sea-level rise associated with climate change contributes to shoreline instability and temporary inundation and, in the longer term, permanent loss of land, buildings and infrastructure. Storm surges, also likely to increase with climate change, augment the effects of a rise in sea level and contribute to temporary inundation and erosion. By 2030, sea level around Australia’s coastline will have increased 13–20 cm relative to 1990 levels, depending on global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency 2015). By 2100, the increase will be between approximately 0.5 m (low emissions scenario) and 1.1 m (high emissions scenario). A medium emissions scenario will have added about 0.8 m to sea level by 2100 (Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency 2015).