Transboundary River Water Availability to Ravi Riverfront under Changing Climate: A Step towards Sustainable Development

Abstract

The Indus Water Treaty allocated the water of the Ravi River to India, and India constructed the Thein Dam on the Ravi River. This study investigates the water availability of the Ravi Riverfront for both pre-dam and post-dam scenarios augmented with pre-flood, flood, and post-flood sub-scenarios. The study also investigates river water availability for low and high magnitudes (Flow Duration Curves) and its linkages with climate change. The modified Mann-Kendall, Sen's slope estimator, and Pearson correlation were used to investigate the river flows. It was found that there is a remarkable decrease in the river water by -36% of annual mean flows as compared to the pre-dam scenario. However, during the flood season, it was -32% at the riverfront upstream (Ravi Syphon Gauge). The reduction in water volume was found as 2.13 Million Acre Feet (MAF) and 1.03 MAF for maximum and mean, respectively, in the Rabi (Winter) season, and 4.07 MAF and 2.76 MAF for max and mean, respectively, in the Kharif (Summer) season. It was also revealed that 180-750 cusecs of water would be available or exceeded for 90% to 99% of the time at Ravi Riverfront during the flood season. The high flows were mainly controlled by temperature in the pre-dam scenario; presently, this water is stored in the Thein Dam reservoir. In contrast, the precipitation role is significant in the post-dam scenario, which means that the flows in the Ravi River are mainly due to base flow contributions and precipitation. This study is the first step in analyzing the river water availability of the Ravi Riverfront, which will ultimately address the associated problems and their solutions to decision-makers. Additionally, implementing an eco-friendly riverfront promotes urban sustainability in developed urban areas, such as Lahore City, and will lead to a comfortable and healthy lifestyle; this will only be possible with water availability in the Ravi Riverfront reach.