Estimating non-optimal temperature-attributable burden of Salmonella and Campylobacter infections under various climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Australia: a comparative risk assessment modelling study

Abstract

Background: Salmonella and Campylobacter infections are leading causes of bacterial gastrointestinal infections, with rising global incidence. Rising temperatures are expected to further drive the transmission and prevalence of enteric infections. Quantifying the current and future burden of Salmonella and Campylobacter infections is crucial for guiding prevention strategies. This study aimed to assess the present and projected burden of Salmonella and Campylobacter infections attributable to rising temperatures in Australia.MethodsIn this comparative risk assessment modelling study, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with Salmonella and Campylobacter infections from 2003 to 2018 were acquired from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and analysed. A meta-regression model was employed to estimate the increase in infection risk per 1°C rise in temperature. Exposure distributions for each Köppen–Geiger climate zone were calculated and compared with the theoretical minimum risk exposure to establish the burden attributable to rising temperatures. Projected burdens for the 2030s and 2050s were assessed under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), considering population growth and adaptation scenarios.FindingsBetween 2003 and 2018, rising temperatures attributed to 11% (41·8 [SD 2·8] DALYs) of Salmonella and 8% (28·1 [1·8] DALYs) of Campylobacter burden. The highest burden was in the tropical rainforest climate zone. By the 2050s, under RCP8.5 and medium population growth without adaptation, Salmonella and Campylobacter burdens could reach 100·6 (10·9) and 67·9 (7·4) DALYs, respectively. A 10% adaptation measure could reduce these to 89·5 (8·3) and 61·8 (6·7) DALYs.InterpretationThis study presents the first national assessment of the temperature-attributable burden of Salmonella and Campylobacter infections in Australia. It addresses a substantial knowledge gap by providing data-driven projections and underscores the necessity for targeted public health interventions and region-specific climate adaptation strategies to mitigate enteric infection risks.FundingAustralian Research Council Discovery Program. Show more