Shaped by waters: The role of major floods in Jakarta's urban form evolution

Abstract

Climate change has intensified flooding risks for megacities near water bodies, such as Jakarta, Indonesia. Both private and public sectors might respond to significant flooding events, and this reaction can manifest in aspects of urban form like population density and land use patterns. Using Ordinary Least Square estimation, we examine the correlation between major flood events from 1990 to 2014 and subsequent shifts in Jakarta's urban landscape. Our results suggest that greater exposure to significantly major floods, such as the 2007 event, correlates with accelerated expansion of built-up areas. Conversely, exposure to moderately major floods, like in 2013, is linked to marked increases in population density. Furthermore, regions intersected by canals exhibit more pronounced urban growth than areas without canals.