Fertility and childhood mortality estimates for Bangladesh based on pregnancy history data

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to estimate fertility and childhood mortality rates for Bangladesh based on the pregnancy history method using the data from the Bangladesh Fertility Survey, 1975-76. Fertility remained high in Bangladesh up to 1970. A substantial decline in fertility was found to have occurred during the period 1971-75. The observed dip in fertility has reflected the effects of the 1971 war of liberation and the 1974 widespread famine in Bangladesh. This dip in fertility was probably temporary and it may revert to its previous level. The total fertility rate for Bangladesh was estimated to be 5.9 per female during the period 1971-75. Observed fertility in the 5-10 years before the date of the survey was found to be exaggerated which perhaps could be associated with the errors in the data resulting from misplacement of events in time. Observed fertility beyond the 15 years preceding the survey was found to be considerably affected by response errors, especially misplacement and omission of events. Fertility rates were generally higher in rural areas than in urban areas. Mortality under age 5 (lɋo and 5ɋo) has, in general, declined during the period 1955-69. However, no apparent decline in mortality of children aged 1-4 was noticed for Bangladesh. Estimates of lɋo, 4ɋ1 and 5ɋo were found to be 133, 87 and 208 per thousand live births respectively during the period 1965-69. Infant mortality was found to have risen during the period 1970-73. This rise was perhaps the reflection of the effects of the devastating cyclone in 1970 and the subsequent war of liberation in 1971. Childhood mortality (4ɋ1 and 5ɋo) could not be estimated because of the fact that some births of children would not have been exposed to the full risks of dying during this period. Infant mortality of 139 per thousand live births during the period 1970-73 was about 9 to 14 per cent lower than the corresponding estimates

for this period available from other studies based on different methods of estimation. Mortality of children under age 5 during the period 1965-69 was also under-reported by about 6 to 13 per cent as compared to the estimates derived in other studies for the comparable period of time. Infant and childhood mortality rates were generally higher in rural areas than in urban areas. In general, 4ɋ1 estimates were higher for females while lɋo and 5ɋo estimates were higher for males. Show more