Australian water management and population change

Abstract

Australia's population is growing rapidly, and is projected to grow by 65 percent to reach over 35 million people by the middle of the century. This population growth could exacerbate stresses on Australia's already stretched water resources and environmental assets, particularly if climate change projections prove correct. At the same time, there is a possibility that water shortages and declining water quality could lead to population decline in some parts of the country. Both of these scenarios will present water managers with significant challenges. With this in mind, this thesis addresses the question: How does Australia's water management framework deal with population change. This topic has not previously been considered in a coherent fashion. While there is an extensive literature on the relationship between population change and the environment more generally, and there has been some discussion of population change and water in Australia, there is a scarcity of literature on water policy and how it deals with population change. The thesis investigates the question from two angles. Firstly, it investigates the institutional arrangements, organisations and policies which influence how population change is considered in the context of water management. Secondly, it investigates what demographic data are available and relevant to water managers, and how these data are and can be used in the context of these institutional arrangements, organisations and policies. Reflecting its focus on policies, legislation, institutions and organisations, the thesis is primarily an exploration of public policy. To a more limited extent, the thesis also draws upon a second discipline, demography. More specifically, the thesis: 1. Develops a conceptual model to help explain the linkages between water management and population in Australia. This is an important contribution to research methodology in the area of population and water management. 2. Explores how and where demographic and population issues are relevant to Australian water managers. The issue of population change, and how water managers deal with it, needs to be considered very differently in different rural and urban areas. These areas, and the ways in which population matters in them, can be identified through analyses of water policy and socio-economic data. 3. Considers in detail the water reforms flowing from the National Water Initiative (NWI) and subsequent Water Act 2007 (Cth) and 2008 Agreement on Murray-Darling Basin Reform, and how population change is dealt with in the context of these reforms. While the NWI provides a range of mechanisms for managing population change, in some cases the effectiveness of these mechanisms remains compromised while they are still being rolled out. Furthermore, the focus of the NWT is on reallocating water resources in rural areas; increases in urban water consumption, associated with urban population growth, will not necessarily be constrained by water allocation planning processes. 4. Considers how population change is dealt with in the context of broader approaches to water management, such as land use planning and urban water planning. In doing so, it draws upon an extensive study of the policy literature, and qualitative discussions with informants involved in water reform at national, State and regional levels in the Commonwealth, New South Wales, and Queensland. 5. Describes and catalogues the myriad of socio-economic data sources available to water managers. It finds that these sources are generally reliable and well-documented, and that there is an emerging body of work aimed at integrating sources of socio-economic data so that they can be more readily used by water managers. 6. Through case studies, assesses in detail how socio-economic data have been used by water allocation planners and urban water planners. To date, a pragmatic approach appears to have been taken, whereby socio-economic data are used only to the extent that is necessary. Other factors (such as land use planning) are equally important determinants of population change and how it should be managed. 7. Considers the relationship between Australian water policy and structural adjustment, and hence, how water policy may lead to population change. Overall, the thesis makes an important contribution to research in the area of water management and population change. It brings together two previously largely separate domains of intellectual inquiry. By identifying and describing many of the ways in which Australian water managers are dealing with population change, it helps build understanding of some of the strengths and shortcomings to how Australia manages its water resources, and areas for improvement. Through its methodology and findings, it also lays a foundation for future work in this area. Show more