Democratic Backsliding in South Asia: A study of structural conditions, democratic values and democratic deterioration

Abstract

The rise of democratic backsliding threatens to reverse progress made towards liberal democracy in stable, as well as developing, democracies. Alongside other regions, South Asia is experiencing an incremental deterioration of political institutions and qualities associated with democratic governance. Previous research on understanding the causes of democratic backsliding has focussed on the elite or party level. These studies consider that democratic backsliding is caused by political leaders who undermine democratic norms or subvert constraints on their power. While agent-based theories help to explain the actions of illiberal political leaders once they assume office, it does little to uncover why such actors are elected and enjoy popular support in the first place.

This thesis puts citizens' values and their attitudes towards democracy at the centre of the puzzle of democratic backsliding. Challenging theories of economic modernisation and political culture, the rapid economic transformation countries in South Asia have experienced since the 1990s has coincided with increasing popular support for illiberal political leaders and populist parties. This study investigates how structural conditions of economic performance, governance and corruption weaken citizens' democratic values in South Asia. Weak democratic values create the conditions for democratic backsliding by threatening the development of a civic culture and increasing citizens' support for authoritarian-populist political leaders and parties.

This study employs a comparative research methodology focusing on the cases of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal. Using cross-national survey data from the World Values Survey (1989-2021) and the South Asia Barometer Survey (2005-2013) enables comparison both over time and across countries. Descriptive, logistic regression and ordinary least squares regression analyses find that perceptions of economic performance, including income inequality, weaken citizens' democratic values in South Asia. Similarly, poor government effectiveness and corruption further deteriorate democratic values in the region. Weak democratic values are found to threaten the development of a democratic political culture, by reducing levels of political engagement, participation and trust. Citizens with weak democratic values are also more likely to support authoritarian leaders and be sympathetic to authoritarian forms of government in South Asia. The study contributes to our understanding of how socioeconomic structural conditions shape political attitudes, and more broadly, speaks to the role of weakened democratic values in facilitating democratic backsliding. Show more