The Indigenous population of Cape York Peninsula, 2001-2016

Abstract

Recent projections made by the Australian Bureau Statistics (ABS) of Indigenous populations resident in various regions of north Australia included a set of estimates for Cape York Peninsula. These were found to be substantially at odds with the results for adjacent regions such as the West Arnhem and Gulf regions of the Northern Territory. The Cape York projections produced population growth rates that were substantially lower than those recorded for other regions, with projected numbers in certain age groups actually declining over the forecast period to 2016. Two factors were regarded as responsible for this outcome: <p> · a deficient 1996 estimated resident population (ERP), and · a lack of regionally-derived age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs). <p> This paper seeks to redress these shortcomings by presenting an alternative and improved set of 1996 population estimates, and by applying regionally-derived ASFRs to projections from this base year. The basic strategy employed in constructing alternative population estimates was to identify other regional population counts that had some claim to credibility in terms of their coverage of the Indigenous population within the region at specified points in time. A number of such sources were identified, and each was assessed for suitability as an element in a proxy count.