Economic Analysis of Energy Use and Environmental Impacts in Thailand

Abstract

This thesis comprises three independent, self-contained empirical studies on energy and environmental issues in Thailand. The first study looks at macroeconomic determinants of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in Thailand. The analysis is based on a multi-regional input-output database from 1990 to 2010. The study first compares emissions under production-based and consumption-based accounting to examine how international trade plays a role in shaping Thailand's carbon dioxide emissions inventory. It further applies a structural decomposition analysis to break down carbon dioxide emissions into seven accounting-identity determinants: carbon intensity of energy use, energy intensity of output, production recipe, commodity structure of final demand, final demand destination, affluence, and population. The findings suggest that production-based emissions surpassed consumption-based emissions by 23.3% per annum on average. A half of emissions taking place in Thailand was a result of exports while emissions embodied in imports accounted for about one-fifth of total emissions consumed in Thailand. The study also finds that an increase in affluence in Thailand and its exporting countries was the most important factor driving Thailand's emissions to grow. The second study investigates the relationship between electricity consumption and per capita GDP in Thailand. The key research objective is to find whether the GDP elasticity of electricity demand in Thailand varies with the levels of per capita GDP. The findings can provide useful implications for electricity demand forecasting. Provincial data from 2006 to 2016 and various econometric techniques are used to estimate the electricity-income elasticity in the short run, in five- and ten-year periods, and in the long run. The results suggest that at higher income levels, electricity demand increases more slowly with income. Similar phenomena are observed for residential, non-residential, and total electricity consumption. The findings imply that declining electricity-income elasticity will yield a more precise projection of electricity demand than constant elasticity. The final study attends to the traffic situation in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR). It focuses on testing the impact of changes in fuel prices on the concentration levels of three traffic-related air pollutants: carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, and particulate matter with a size of less than or equal to 10 microns in diameter. The data employed are at the daily and monthly basis from 1996 to 2017. The pollution data are collected from 25 monitoring stations across the BMR. The findings provide evidence that higher fuel prices reduce air pollution from road vehicles. The fuel price elasticities of carbon monoxide and particulate matter pollution are found to be around -0.3 to -0.4 and -0.1 to -0.4, respectively. The fuel price elasticity of nitrogen dioxide is found to be -0.2 to -0.3 during 1996-2006 but the sign changes to be positive afterwards. The substitution of gasoline with gaseous fuels that release more nitrogen dioxide potentially caused the fuel price elasticity of nitrogen dioxide to change sign after 2006. The results suggest that an elimination of fuel price subsidies will lead to a reduction in air pollution. Show more