Modeling multi-person choice

Abstract

Many important decisions are made by groups. Partners often make joint consumption decisions for the household, and multiple people are likely to be involved in important, costly or complex decisions, such as purchasing or renting a house, buying a car or selecting a destination for a family holiday. Given the prevalence of multi-person choice in practice, it seems surprising that there is not more emphasis on multi-person choice in marketing. The overall goal of this thesis is to develop a richer understanding of multi-person choice that incorporates both individual and group dynamics, while addressing key limitations with previous research. I focus on two primary areas related to multi-person choice - 1) the roles that individuals play in forming preferences for the group; and 2) the consistency of group decisions. Current approaches to modeling group decisions assume that group preferences come from individual member preferences, but this assumption fails to recognize that individuals may have different preferences depending on their role in the decision. What an individual wants for a group may be different to what they want for themselves. Drawing on work in social psychology, this thesis introduces the idea of multiple-selves, and by considering the different sets of preferences that an individual takes into the group deliberation, I offer a new approach to modeling the influence of members. While preferences are important in understanding multi-person choice, such decisions are often clouded by ambiguity and uncertainty, and it is largely a result of this uncertainty that groups, (and consumers) may make inconsistent choices in the market-place. Furthermore, different decision-makers may vary in terms of the consistency of their choices in a given context. Therefore, understanding choice consistency, as well as preferences, is important for marketers. My thesis examines the drivers of choice consistency in groups, and by doing so, offers a deeper understanding of how groups, and members of groups, make choices. I calibrate my model through a four-wave choice experiment in the context of partners selecting a holiday destination. This experiment enables me to test a variety of behavioral phenomena, relating to member similarity, prediction of others' preferences, member influence, and choice consistency. By providing a clearer understanding of group decisions, this thesis can allow managers to develop more effective targeting strategies, design more attractive products, and gain better returns from marketing investments. Show more