Cardiovascular disease policy model : microsimulation approach

Abstract

This paper outlines a microsimulation model that aims to quantify the likely impact of two major components of cardiovascular disease (CVD), namely coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular disease (stroke), on the Australian health care system under various scenarios. The model will provide baseline projections of CVD mortality, morbidity and resource costs for up to 25 years. The cost and effectiveness of various alternative prevention and treatment strategies will then be assessed in terms of changes in the cost and outcome measures from the baseline projections. The proposed model has four sub-models: the Incidence model, the Bridge model and separate Prevalence models for CHD and stroke. The paper will also present empirical results from the baseline Incidence sub-model developed by integrating crosssectional and longitudinal data. Show more