Modeling consumer behaviour in the presence of network effects

Abstract

Consumer choice models are a key component in fields such as Revenue Management and Transport Logistics, where the demands for certain products or services are assumed to follow a particular form, and sellers or market-makers use that information to adjust their strategies accordingly, choosing for example which products to display (assortment problem) or their prices (pricing problem). In the last couple of decades, online markets have taken a lot of relevance, providing a setting where consumers can compare easily different products, before deciding to buy them. More information is now available, and the purchasing decisions not only depend on the quality, prices and availability of the products, but also on what previous consumers think about them (phenomenon commonly known as Network Effects). Hence, in order to create a suitable model for this kind of market, it is relevant to understand how the collective decisions affect the market evolution. In this thesis we consider a particular subset of those online markets, cultural markets, where the products are for example songs, video games or ebooks. This kind of market has the special feature that its products have unlimited supply (since they are just a digital copy), and therefore we can exploit this in our models, to justify assumptions of the asymptotic behaviour of the market. We study some variations of the traditional Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, characterising the behaviour of consumers, where their purchasing decisions are affected by the quality and prices (initially fixed) of the available products, as well as their visibilities in the market interface and the consumption patterns of previous users. We focus particularly on the parameters associated to the network effects, where depending on the strength of the network effects, it is possible to explain: herd behaviours, where an alternative overpowers the rest; as well as more well-distributed settings, where all the alternatives receive enough attention giving a notion of fairness, since higher quality products get a larger market share. Finally, using the model where market shares are distributed according to the quality of the products, we study pricing strategies, where sellers can either collaborate or compete. We analyse the effect of both type of strategies into the choice model. Show more