The Complex Interdependence of China's Belt and Road Initiative in the Philippines

Abstract

Complex interdependence refers to the multiple chan-nels of interaction and agenda in interstate relations,which involve domestic (public and private) stake-holders and nonmilitary issues. Since the Belt and RoadInitiative (BRI) came into being, most analyses havelargely focused on infrastructure development. TheBRI not only has the potential to impact a hostgovernment's socioeconomic agenda but also its overallbilateral relationship with China. It is therefore imper-ative to measure the progress and prospects of China'sBelt and Road projects in the Philippines, in line withBeijing's strategic goal to deepen complex interdepen-dence with partner‐states, against the BRI's five majordimensions of cooperation: (a) policy coordination, (b)infrastructure development and connectivity, (c) tradeand investment facilitation, (d) financial coordinationand integration, and (e) people‐to‐people ties and con-nectivity. These, together with the examination ofChina's BRI projects in other Asian countries as modesof comparison, are crucial in assessing probable out-comes in the Philippines. The paper includes policy rec-ommendations based on possible pitfalls and risks thatmay hamper the advancement of the Belt and Roadprojects in the Philippines and Sino‐Philippine bilateralinteraction Show more