Pipe dreams and tunnel visions: economists and Australian population debates before the Baby Boom

Abstract

Australia is notably, if not notoriously, a land of much space but few people. Its population density is, correspondingly, almost the lowest of any country in the world: only Namibia and Mongolia record a lower figure. Australia’s extreme divergence from the common human experience has been a magnet for strong reactions; and Australia’s small population has frequently judged either being a failing or a blessing. Economists, however, have in the past two generations tended to keep their silence on this issue. But for about 20 years prior to the postWar baby boom economists did have some confidence that simple economic theory could constitute a guide to population policy, under the rubric of ‘optimal population’ theory. This paper reviews Australian explorations of ‘optimal population’ in the period, and concludes the episode provides a moral on the frustrations that may meet hopes that simple economic theory can provide answers to large questions.