The measurement of gains and losses from agricultural research

Abstract

This thesis is a survey of research over the last two decades stemming from the now classical study by Griliches on evaluating the gains from agricultural research. The thesis points to a number of areas in which there are problems which need to be resolved, and hopefully, in a few instances provides the basis on which future research may proceed. The most important point of concern is the under-estimate of social gains (losses) provided by the supply-shift approach developed by Griliches. Wisecarver has shown that estimates based on shifts in input-demand curves are an appropriate method of estimating such gains. The several studies which have attempted to estimate the distribution of productivity gains between consumers and producers were shown by Scobie to have used formulations of consumers' and producers' surplus which give different, and even contradictory results for the same question. This problem was shown to be mainly attributable to the different mathematical approaches adopted. However, the important point which arises from this issue is that there needs to be questioning about the appropriateness of the supply and demand, or input-demand specifications adopted. Further, it is desirable that the formulae derived adopt standard specifications for the shifts in the supply or input-demand curves and elasticity estimates.