Australian Naval Decision-Making and the Post-Modern Navy Model

Abstract

This thesis aimed to explore the utility of Geoffrey Till's spectral model of Modern and Post-Modern navies to identify the factors underpinning Australian naval deployments in the post-Cold War era. Till developed his framework to explain the impact of globalisation on post-Cold War naval operations. He argues that as the threat of major conflict reduced, countries would increasingly be shaped by globalisation and the greater movement of people, capital, and goods across borders. The centrality of maritime trade to globalisation would see navies consequently evolve to protect the global maritime trading system collaboratively ("Post-Modern" operations), rather than simply focusing on their direct national interests ("Modern" operations). Despite being one of the few bodies of work to analyse the impact of the end of the Cold War on navies, Till's framework has received little empirical scrutiny. This research addressed that gap with respect to Australia asking: "To what extent does Till's 'Post-Modern' navy model provide a useful guide for Australia's contemporary and future maritime security interests?" The methodology employed both a historical examination of policies, expenditure, capital investment, and deployment data, and a thematic analysis of a series of semi-structured interviews with former political and military leaders to identify the factors influencing Australian naval decision-making. Comparing the identified factors to those underpinning Till's model revealed Australia's preference for Post-Modern operations during times of strategic stability. However, this proves contingent and rapidly reversible when circumstances deteriorate. Significantly, the research identified that alliance management and domestic political factors have heavily influenced Australian decision-making in naval deployments, elements not fully captured in Till's framework. Contemporary pressures undermining globalisation, the key factor underpinning Till's model, include the emerging US-China strategic competition, the "America First" approach to trade and international relations under the second Trump Presidency, technological changes and increasing challenges to the implementation of international law. These are explored and discussed in an attempt to understand the future operating environment with respect to Australia's naval operations in the context of Till's framework. This thesis concludes that, as a medium power with limited geostrategic influence, Australia prefers, conditions permitting, Post-Modern operations as the most efficient way to protect its national interests. However, this remains viable only when the risk of interstate conflict is low. Contemporary circumstances are driving a return to more Modern thinking and force structure decisions, evidenced by the priority given to nuclear powered submarines and long-range strike capabilities. Australia should structure primarily for Modern operations and use those capabilities to execute Post-Modern missions when circumstances allow. Empirically testing the utility of Till's model bridges a major gap between theory and the real-world applicability of the dominant post-Cold War framework of naval strategy. This thesis confirmed Till's model is useful, not only contemporaneously but historically, in effectively capturing the impact of structural shifts. However, it does not incorporate the crucial factors of alliance management and domestic political considerations which have been significant in Australian decision making. It provides valuable, but incomplete, guidance for middle powers. Future research is needed to address the applicability of these findings beyond the Australian setting and to incorporate the identified elements into the model to improve its utility in determining when and how naval operations shift along the Modern/Post-Modern spectrum. Show more