Mass Protest Mobilisation in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan (2010-2016)

Abstract

This thesis seeks to uncover the background, motivations, and drivers of two mass protests that represent some of the largest instances of mass mobilisation in both number and scope in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan (or indeed in Central Asia as a whole) in recent years. These protests took place in Kyrgyzstan in 2010 and in Kazakhstan in 2016 respectively, leading to regime change in the former and government concessions to the protesters in the latter. Explanation and analysis in this thesis stems from original data, collected in both countries on an eight-month field trip in 2017 that has enabled a detailed reconstruction of these national events. In total, eighty participants were interviewed, including members of the government and non-governmental elites, the opposition, businessmen, analysts, journalists, academics and the public. This data facilitated consideration of the micro- meso- and macro- drivers of mass protest events in the two states and expedited analysis of the nature of patron-client relations between the elites and the masses in Central Asia. In identifying what impels people to protest, this thesis concludes that patron-client relations (between the elites and the masses) were consistently used to drive mobilisation efforts in Kyrgyzstan and to a lesser extent in Kazakhstan. However, the thesis also notes the role of patronal settings in inducing mass protest in both states, and the role of horizontal ties in driving mobilisation. Thus, this work contributes to but also challenges the elite-dominated approach to the study of protests in post-Soviet societies. Further, this work theorises a three-actor model of mass mobilisation and argues that protests in factional political settings, such as those seen in contemporary Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are largely determined by the relationships between the local leaders (termed brokers) and the local communities (referred to as clients). The thesis concludes with comparative remarks on mobilisation for mass protests in the two countries. Show more