Growth in crop output: Pakistan and Indian Punjabs since 1947

Abstract

This study on growth performance in Pakistan Punjab's crop sector after independence in 1947 aims at finding whether growth has varied significantly between the three identifiable sub-periods into which the post-independence period can be divided, whether the performance of different crops in terms of area and yield has been different over the sub-periods and whether the sources of growth in terms of contribution of yields, area and cropping-pattern-change (using an additive model of decomposition of growth) have been different over the sub-periods. The study also attempts to discover the contribution of the land, water and fertilizer inputs to production. Finally, Pakistan Punjab's agricultural growth is compared with agricultural growth reported for the adjoining and similar region of Indian Punjab, in order to discover whether there has been a differential in growth in production and productivity between the two Punjabs and whether such difference is also reflected in unequal levels of input use and difference in conditions of institutions and infrastructure. To provide a background to these aspects, an historical perspective is first developed on the physical, economic and policy environment of Punjab agriculture and the development of inputs and infrastructure over the period of study. The study finds that growth has varied significantly between the three sub-periods. In particular, it finds an all-pervasive decline or levelling-off in growth during the last period. It also finds that the sources of growth in terms of contribution to production of area, yield and cropping pattern changes have been different between the three subperiods. The study is not successful in measuring the contribution of individual inputs of land, water and fertilizer because weaknesses in the data precluded the drawing of statistically valid conclusions. In respect of the comparison between Pakistan and Indian Punjab's growth performance, the study comes to the conclusion that Indian Punjab, over most of the period, has had higher growth rates and levels of production than Pakistan Punjab and that this is also reflected in a marked difference in levels of input-use, infrastructure development and institutional arrangements. Implications on policy arise from these findings. Show more