The growth of population, households and dwelling units in Shanghai

Abstract

This study first reviews the levels and patterns of the basic components of population growth in Shanghai. Then, under the fertility, mortality and migration assumptions, the population projections in Shanghai City Proper of high, medium and low variants are made. Furthermore, the number of households and dwelling units are projected by using the United Nations' 'headship rate method' and 'useful housing solution methods'. Finally, the number of different types of dwellings and the living space per person in Shanghai City Proper were estimated. It is found that, compared with the national level, the fertility and mortality levels in Shanghai are generally lower and more stable, and the impact of migration in Shanghai has been very small. The projected populations in Shanghai City Proper would range from 6.3 million in 1982 to 6.1 million (low), 6.5 million (medium) and 6.7 million (high) in 2017. The projected population of three variants at the year 2000 all exceed the official population target, 6.5 million. The projected number of households and dwelling units would increase from 2.1 million in 1987 to 2.6 million in 2002. The projected living space per person will only be 7.5 m^ at the year 2002, which is lower than the official target living space per person, 8m² at the year 2000.