Russian Arctic strategy under Putin: conflict or cooperation?

Abstract

The Arctic is widely considered to be a potential flashpoint for international conflict over access to, and control of, its riches. Russia's assertive foreign and military policies in recent years have accentuated this perception. This study of Russian Arctic strategy under Putin proceeds from the notion that Putin’s Russia seeks to regain great power status on the back of its energy wealth, and argues that it will continue to apply energy in a coercive nature within the former Soviet Union and the near abroad. However, when it comes to the Arctic, Russia has no alternative but to approach the region and its counterparts in a measured and cooperative manner. The hypothesis of this study is that there is a strong case for Russian cooperation with the West in the Arctic. The thesis argues this cooperation results from Russia’s technological and investment requirements from the West; Russia’s solid legal case in the Arctic with regards to the continental shelf debate; and finally, the strong precedent of cooperation over Arctic matters. These themes are explored through a neoclassical realist framework. For now, Russia may continue to try to repair relations with the West, where possible, including the Arctic and many Western leaders and corporations will want to respond positively. Even if tensions persist in Russia's near abroad, including the Baltic region, the 'new cold War' paradigm will not apply to Arctic resources and governance issues. Show more