The Evolution of Trade Governance in the 21st Century

Abstract

The international trading system has undergone a radical shift over the last twenty years. Multilateral trade negotiations at the World Trade Organization have generated only limited results, while preferential trade agreements (PTA) have proliferated and become the primary mechanism for regulating trade and investment flows.

This dissertation seeks to identify how the architecture of trade governance has influenced trade agreement formation and design. More specifically, this study is centred on answering three questions. First, how has the architecture of the trade governance system changed since the end of the 20th century? Second, in what ways have relational mechanisms influenced the evolution of the trade governance architecture? Third, how do changes in the trade governance architecture affect governance outcomes?

This dissertation employs a complexity-based relational framework in conjunction with tools drawn from network science to make a series of theoretical, empirical, and methodological contributions. On the theoretical front, I advance the argument that system architecture needs to be incorporated as a key theoretical component into analyses of strategic interaction and global governance. This dissertation also highlights the importance of relational mechanisms in the design of international trade agreements and shows that the design of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership was not a simple function of the distribution of material power of the negotiating parties.

Empirically, this dissertation provides a novel two-mode network mapping approach of the trade governance system which allows for differences in the evolution of bilateral and multiparty agreements to be distinguished. Specific relational mechanisms - network closure, popularity, and cross-network effects - were identified as drivers of the trade governance architecture. This dissertation also shows that reference treaties play a key role in institutional design. Finally, for the first time, this dissertation has mapped and formally measured the architecture of the e-commerce governance system and linked architectural properties to potential governance outcomes.