School-age population and educational planning in China

Abstract

This study has projected, compared and analysed the trends in size of the total population, school-going population (aged 6-14) and level of school enrollment under various fertility assumptions for China during the period 1982-2012, as well as associated demands. The focus of this study is on the future school enrollment and its implications. Based on population projections by residence (rural and urban), under different mortality and fertility assumptions, this study has found that in general the size of the projected school-age population aged 6-14 and school enrollment for primary and junior high school show a falling trend broken by a substantial period of increase during the period 1982-2012, but the dimension of changes is varied under different fertility variants. With the passage of time, the differences among the projected results under different fertility variants become larger as a result of the intensified influence of fertility assumptions. Taking the projection results under the medium variant as an example, it is found that the school-going population decreases by 23 per cent during the period 1982-1992 for rural areas and by 32 per cent during the period 1982-1999 for urban areas; and increases by 35 per cent during 1992-2005 for rural areas and increase by less than 0.01 during the period 1999-2001 for urban areas; then decreases again starting from 2006 and 2002 to the end of the projection period for rural and urban areas respectively. It is further assumed that the enrollment rate will increase from 87.6 per cent in 1982 to about 99.8 per cent in 2002 for urban areas and from 73.1 per cent in 1982 to about 99.5 per cent in 2012 for rural areas, indicating the realization of a universal period of nine years of compulsory education. Correspondingly, a similar fluctuation occurs to the associated demands for teachers and funds. This study has also examined and evaluated some of the implications of the fluctuation of the projected trends of school-going population. Although the policy of population growth control will benefit the people's well-being and the national development, including the development of education, this kind of fluctuation in the population trends that will result from the implementation of the inconsistent population policy in the past must be taken into serious consideration by the policy-makers and education-planners. Flexible and appropriate strategies should be implemented in advance, for such aspects as the training of qualified teaching staff and available funds, in order to accommodate the future fluctuations in the demand for educational services.