Estimation of vital rates for Burma and their effects on the future size of population

Abstract

Very few studies have been made of the demography of Burma and in particular there is a gap in the post-war period from about 1953 to 1973. This thesis is an attempt to study the demography of Burma as well as to fill in this gap. However, the study deals mainly with the early 1970s. Much reliance has been made on the 1973 unpublished census age distribution and on vital statistics for 1971-74 although references have been made to the earlier periods, both pre-war and post-war. The (unofficial and unpublished) single year age distribution from the 1973 census is studied in Chapter 111, mortality in Chapter IV and fertility in Chapter V. Except for urban areas, there is very little data to estimate the population parameters directly, thus various indirect estimation approaches have to be adopted. Finally, in the last chapter, population projections are made to forecast the future population of Burma up to the year 2003 under three different assumptions: constant mortality and fertility, declining mortality and constant fertility, and declining mortality accompanied with declining fertility. It has been found that the Burma age data from the 1973 census are of high quality, the mortality has been declining at the rate of about one West mortality level every five years and that there is some evidence of a certain extent of fertility control in urban areas. The population projections show that Burma's population will double itself in 25 to 30 year's time. Show more