Public opinion, polling and the conduct of Palestinian political leadership : an analysis of the role of responsiveness in the creation and perpetuation of Fatah's leadership crisis post-Arafat

Abstract

This research examines the relationship between Palestinian leadership crisis and responsiveness to public opinion under the leadership of Mahmoud Abbas between 2005 and 2009. It uses the concept of responsiveness as an analytical tool, a 'prism' to highlight relationship-related aspects of this crisis. It explores both causes and consequences of low levels of responsiveness to public opinion in Fatah's leadership conduct, and suggests an approach to their study which recognizes the multitude of influences on Fatah's decision-making that combine to create a specific incentive structure for responsiveness. The research finds that responsiveness to public opinion has played a critical role in the creation and perpetuation of Fatah's leadership crisis. The comparison of the role of responsiveness in the pre-election conduct of both major contenders in the 2006 PLC elections - Fatah and Hamas - is used to illustrate the power of responsiveness in providing electoral advantage. The analysis distinguishes between two key prerequisites for responsive decision-making: the willingness and the ability of leadership to assess and respond to public opinion. A number of factors are identified as influencing willingness: institutionalization of elections (enabling the electoral imperative for responsiveness); conditionality of external economic and political support (creating the need to prioritize responsiveness to external over domestic demands); movement-internal fragmentation (preventing learning about the benefits of responsiveness from being shared movement-internally); and the public state of thinking about legitimation of power under the specific circumstances of arrested non-state democratization (impacting on the need for supplementing electoral legitimation mobilizationally). Factors influencing the ability of leadership to respond are identified as the limitations of Palestinian jurisdiction under continuing military occupation, and the levels of experience and expertise required to assess public opinion and respond to it. Leadership characteristics, in particular the default-nature of Abbas' leadership and the unique historic experience of Fatah's leadership in exile, are both found to affect both willingness, and ability to respond to public opinion. These factors constitute important elements within an incentive structure for responsiveness that is case-specific and dynamic. For Hamas, they created a clearly pro-responsive balance of incentives and disincentives that enabled the Islamic Movement to prioritize responsiveness in its pre-election conduct, while the opposite was true for Fatah. However, changes affecting any of these influences could tip this balance, creating more favourable conditions for responsiveness in future. The findings of this research illustrate a specific role for responsiveness in the mitigation of leadership crisis. Beneficiaries of this insight are both leaders and international actors. For leaders, a better understanding of the role of responsiveness may provide additional incentives its utilization, and may strengthening the ability to interpret and apply past experience towards more responsive processes of decision-making. For international actors, such understanding may provide support for a new approach to supporting good governance, one that strengthens indigenous leadership by encouraging responsiveness to domestic demands. -- provided by Candidate.