A simulation model of rural-urban migration in Kenya

Abstract

A major problem currently facing politicians and policymakers in Kenya is a serious growth of urban unemployment. The problem is aggravated by an increasing tendency for persons to migrate from the rural areas to the cities in the hope of obtaining employment at incomes significantly above those obtainable in the rural areas. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to design a simulation model to trace movements in net rural to urban migration in Kenya over time. The model is an adapted version of the Todaro dynamic model (1969) which explains the rate of net migration in terms of rural-urban modern sector employment. The Todaro hypothesis is discussed in detail and migration literature reviewed before development of the model is attempted. A flow chart is presented to demonstrate the variable and parameter interactions which occur and tests are applied to the model to assess its predictive capacity and structural soundness before experimentation is justified. Experimentation with the model focuses on the impact of changes in key variable and parameter values on migration rates, urban employment ratios, workforce growth rates and workforce number in both sectors. The results indicate clearly the potential magnitude of the employment problem in Kenya and highlight the need for immediate implementation of effective policies to curb migration and reduce income differentials. A brief discussion of recommended policies is given with the conclusion being that an integrated overall approach to the problem is required if any impact is to be made in the future.