Narratives of adaptation for future-oriented conservation

Abstract

Adaptation is about those actions we can do today in response to observed changes or to prepare for future changes. The speed and rate of current global change trajectories call to examine how we understand and relate with nature and make decisions to adapt to future changes despite uncertainty. This thesis contributes to climate adaptation research from the perspective of protected areas, a common and often preferred form of conservation. The research study existing narratives of adaptation in protected areas, to understand how and why individuals and institutions make sense of climate change impacts in biodiversity conservation, and how such interpretations influence choices for the future. Three research questions guide the enquiry: 1) what narratives of adaptation exist, 2) how do these narratives influence choices for managing climate-induced changes, and 3) how do the narratives facilitate future-oriented practices? The methodological approach is based on the interdisciplinary field of futures studies. The analytical framework for the thesis is based on the Five Dimensions of Futures Consciousness, a conceptual model which helps to understand how individuals and institutions prepare for the future. I used mixed qualitative methods for data collection, including review of policy documents and empirical data collected through interviews with conservation practitioners and scientists conducted in Australia, Colombia, and South Africa. As a thesis by compilation the results are presented in five papers. The papers illustrate how futures consciousness elements come into play when defining a system or parts of a system for management, and the implications for managing change or preventing changes in protected areas. I found a diversity of interpretations of what adaptation is, influencing how management is likely to accept change in conservation goals and its implications for defining adaptation options. The different interpretations of adaptation are context related. Adaptation actions often follow socially constructed discourses, which are then implemented in the form of policies and strategies. This research elaborates on how and which characteristics of futures consciousness are involved in decision-making processes and reaffirms the relevance of examining how individuals mobilise and express desires for change at broader scales. The findings demonstrate how individuals' values influence the understanding and acceptance of ecological change across temporal and spatial scales, which then can influence choices for adaptation. Shifting the paradigm of long-term conservation in the enclosed boundaries of protected areas requires rethinking assumptions of change, critical thinking about the limits of adaptation, understanding where the motivations to do conservation come from, what are the costs of sustaining adaptation, and the role of rules in shaping action. Future-oriented strategies can be based within day-to-day management to enhance reflection and identify how to move forward. It is also important to consider that people's mental models about a system and their expectations for the future will be different, which can be influenced by social and cultural contexts influencing action and planning. Exploring futures consciousness can encourage practitioners and scientists to critically examine existing assumptions about change, while unpacking potential contradictions between individual and collective aspirations about the future. The futures consciousness model helped to understand climate adaptation preferences, expectations, and motivations behind actions, while considering the diverse ontological and epistemological perspectives and relational approaches involved in managing protected areas. This research provides insights into how individuals and institutions anticipate and prepare for the future, offering a route to construct positive and desirable futures for conservation. Show more