A threat looms large: China's territorial disputes in the south china sea, 1989-2011

Abstract

China’s foreign policy in Southeast Asia regarding the South China Sea disputes has fundamentally changed since the end of the Cold War. Following the end of the Cold War, China transformed from a previous hostile and antagonistic stance towards Southeast Asian countries to a friendlier approach which is usually termed as a ‘good neighbor policy’. Many scholars especially constructivists therefore argue that China has changed its identity to become a benign rising power. Since 2010, however, China has again changed its diplomatic approach and became even more aggressive in its claims in the South China Sea disputes. Why was there such a dramatic change in China’s regional foreign policy? Constructivists remain silent in answering this question. This study argues that the change of power distribution between China and other states in Southeast Asia is the major driving force that has facilitated change in Beijing’s diplomatic approach to this region since the end of the Cold War. Through a historical analysis within an offensive realist theoretical framework, this study concludes that China’s change of its diplomatic approach is mainly driven by change of power distribution in the region, or in other words, by realist factors.