Fertility change and the impact of family planning in Shaanxi Province, China

Abstract

This study analyzes the fertility change in Shaanxi Province, China and estimates the impact of family planning programs on fertility decline during the 1972-1984. Data used come from the 1985 Regional In-Depth Fertility Survey, supplemented by service statistics of family planning. Fertility change in Shaanxi is analyzed in terms of children ever born to married women, parity progression ratio, age— specific fertility rates, age— specific marital fertility rates and total fertility rates, as well as cohort-period fertility rates. The results confirm a substantial fertility decline in the study areas, particularly among women aged 30 and over and during the 9 years prior to the 1985 survey. This study reveals very high levels of knowledge (5.2 methods per women) and use (currently 69 percent) of contraceptives, suggesting that contraceptive practice plays a key role in reducing fertility among married women in Shaanxi. Of all methods used, 92.6 percent are provided by family planning programs, mainly the more efficient methods, the IUD and sterilization. The study also finds that under strong family planning programs, contraceptive use among married women is irrespective of educational level, Three evaluative methods have been employed to assess the program impact on fertility decline: standardization approach, component projection approach II, and the prevalence model. It is estimated that, of all births averted during the period 1972-1984, three-quarters had been averted by women aged 25 — 39 at the time of the survey, and about 80 percent had been averted by using the IUD and sterilization.