Slick operators: revising Rentier State Theory for the modern Arab States of the Gulf

Abstract

Rentier state theory (RST) remains the dominant literature on state-society relations in the Arab States of the Gulf, yet by focusing on case studies of three ostensibly ‘rentier’ states, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman, and their experience during the post-2011 period, this dissertation challenges assumptions of rent-induced political stagnation, state autonomy, and poor economic development prevalent in RST. The study is based on seven months field research in the Gulf region and among expatriate communities residing in the United Kingdom conducted between June 2013 and February 2014, including over 130 personal interviews with members of royal families, elected and appointed representatives, development advisors, youth entrepreneurs, and demonstrators involved in protests since 2011, as well as other data gathering activities. By examining informal and formal opposition in Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman since 2011, this thesis disputes RST’s assertion that distributions of wealth stymie political dissent. Participants in street demonstrations generally did not refer to material interests when justifying their opposition, but instead emphasised dissatisfaction with political rights, desire to hold the state accountable, or – in Qatar and Oman where society did not form ‘opposition’ so much as ‘reform-oriented movements’ – a sense that reform was in the national interest. Even loyalists justified their support for the state not by reference to rent distributions, but rather a sense of responsiveness and, in most cases, a shared identity with the ruling elite. The dissertation also disputes RST’s typical depiction of the state as a coherent actor, analysing political pressures emanating from reform-oriented groups within the state. As rent distributions were a poor determinant of political activism, the thesis identifies several dynamics that overpowered rent-based incentives to remain politically inactive. While RST depicts states as effectively coopting society through rent distributions, the dissertation draws from an in-depth examination of Omani economic development between 1990 and 2014 to reveal that the state’s rent-driven economic development strategy had unintentionally contributed to a sense of inequality among nationals and the emergence of popular dissatisfaction, highlighting the importance of examining rent-based cooptation strategies at a sub-national level rather than relying on assumptions of cooptation at the national level. In a similar critique, the research also investigates the international dimensions of rentierism, finding that rentier states were far less insulated than typically assumed, examining three key cases where international networks or political pressures have impacted the state-society relationship. Societies, then, were far from quiescent, and this research examines the networks and dynamics that have allowed citizens to challenge state authority. The dissertation argues that rentierism remains critical to understanding state-society relations in the Gulf states during the post-2011 period, but it is not necessarily dominant, and that several assumed outcomes of oil and gas wealth require revision and refinement. Ultimately, the dissertation depicts oil and gas-rich states of the Arab Gulf as having exceptional capacity to respond to the material demands of their citizenry, but also remaining responsive to a politically active society, even where formal political liberalisation has been limited, or even regressed since 2011.