Population trends in East Java

Abstract

This study has examined the levels, trends and differentials of infant and child mortality, fertility and migration in East Java. Based on these findings, alternative projections of the population from 1980 to 2000 were made, and the implications of these projections for school enrolment and the labour force were discussed. The main analysis was based on the 1980 census and the 1980 East Java Population Survey. In general, the results of this study confirm that infant and child mortality have decreased gradually, probably as a result of social and economic development. The age specific fertility rates also have decreased since the mid-1960s. The results also reveal mortality and fertility differentials according to urban-rural residence, maternal education and age of mother. The total fertility rate in East Java was one of the lowest among all provinces in Indonesia, and the annual growth rate of East Java was lower than the national level. In balance East Java had no out-migration. East Java, in terms of size of population is the largest of the 27 provinces in Indonesia with 29.2 million in 1980. The population will continue to increase to the year 2000, ranging from 36.0 million to 38.8 million depending on the rates of fertility decline and out-migration. Primary school enrolments are not expected to increase rapidly, because of already high levels of enrolment and declines in fertility, but secondary school enrolments should continue to increase due to an anticipated greater enrolment rate. The labour force also will increase in size, but not as rapidly as would be expected because of anticipated declines in participation rates for the youngest and oldest groups of the working-age population. Show more