Planning agricultural development in a hill region of Uttar Pradesh - India : a programming approach

Abstract

In India's planning history no proper attention was given to the hill areas up to the year 1969 except to the extent that they wore covered only under general framework of the Community Development Programme. During the 4th PYP period these areas were identified and classified as 'Backward Areas' and were given some consideration, though still inadequate, to enhance the economic development. It was only in the 5th FYP (1974-1979) that specific programmes were formulated with the aim of improving economic situations of the farmers. The primary thesis of this study is the contention that a successful planning programme in the agricultural sector must start with the individual farm units as the basic planning unit. The planning objective is to enable the farmer to secure higher income levels and greater employment opportunities in the context of general economic deve1opment. Farmers need assistance in planning, evaluating, and developing more productive and profitable systems of operation and in this study an attempt is made to assist this decision making process employing both linear programming (1-P) and Monte Carlo Simulation in complementary fashion. In this analysis two average size farms, small and large, are considered in order to represent most of the farms in the area. To make the plans more relevant, attention is given to the farmers' resources, family goals, needs and the problems which impede their progress under the existing technology. The analysis proceeds further, introducing improved technology in the form of new, improved, and high yielding crops into the existing situation whilst maintaining other specified constraints. In all, 'eight alternative farming systems' are examined to provide farmers with a wide range of choice. A major objective of this study was to test whether resource allocation between existing and new enterprises would enhance farm income both under existing and improved technologies . Application of LP suggested a marked increase could be obtained in farm income and surplus supplies of human labour and cash could be utilized on both the farm sizes under existing technologies. With improved technology, the available cash and human labour supplies (particularly in the month of May) are found insufficient to meet growing requirements owing to the introduction of cash and labour intensive food and cash crops. The initial credit supplies made available to the farmers also failed to meet the enlarged demand for cash. Alternatives presented with unlimited credit availability, exploited the resources and generated higher level of incomes. Thus, it clearly indicates the increased employment potential in the farming sector if improved technology is made available together with credit facilities. An important piece of information gathered from the dual solutions indicated that cash and credit supplies (only in plans with limited credit availability) and irrigable land are the main binding constraints. Human labour is also found to be a binding constraint but the supplies can be increased in critical periods as the area is in labour surplus. Parametric variations of these constraints arc examined to investigate the effects of farm income, etc. An exercise with paramaterization of credit availability showed the limits of profitable credit use. This was shown to be higher than that of the original availability. The restriction on irrigable land was relaxed (which is possible only in long term) and showed that small farms are more efficient users of irrigable land than larger farms. This was reflected in the relative increase in income of both farm groups under study. Calculations were made employing Monte Carlo simulation to complement the LP results using the same input-output coefficients. These generated a range of variable plans, unlike LP, for each of the alternatives. Thus, simulation offered a number of choices to the decision maker, the farmer, depending upon his subjective criteria and resource supplies. The risk management problem was also tackled applying a multi-objective approach which showed that these sub-optimal solutions are of great importance if more than one objective were to be considered. The results suggested that it is the future development, of the labour market in the area, not the risk and uncertainties associated with yields and prices of farm inputs and products, which would affect the farmers' strategy in the selection of enterprise combinations or farm plans. It is evident from this study that a combination of these two programming techniques employed in farm planning process would provide a much more realistic basis for decision making by offering a range o f solutions with wide variability. A further objective of this study was to test the applicability and reliability of LP and Monte Carlo simulation techniques for the purpose of farm planning in the hill areas of Uttar Pradesh - considering the individual family farm as a planning unit . Though results obtained show great promise the limiations of data require that they should be treated cautiously for planning purposes . To make plans more effective and practicable , data, particularly input -output coefficients , should be updated and horticultural crops - fruit crops - should also be included in the plans . Finally it is suggested that a dynamic model should be explored to take account of the developing agricultural systems. Show more