Do Leaders Matter? How Personal Characteristics and Experiences Shape Electoral Violence

Abstract

While incumbents' role in electoral violence has received considerable scholarly attention, little is known about how political leaders themselves affect electoral violence. An increasing number of studies have shown that myriad political outcomes can be explained by focusing on leaders' personal attributes and life experiences. This thesis examines how political leaders' decisions and prior experiences affect their use of, or abstinence from, violent electoral strategies. I contend that (1) leaders with military experience, populist leaders, and those that have manipulated presidential term limits are more likely than their peers to resort to electoral violence and (2) leaders who had their university education in Western countries are less likely to employ electoral violence. The empirical results suggest that leaders from rebel backgrounds, populist leaders, and those that have overstayed their constitutionally mandated term limits are positively associated with their government's use of electoral violence. In contrast, the empirical evidence does not support my theoretical expectation that a leader's Western university education decreases the likelihood of electoral violence. Overall, this study's findings offer important insights into leader-specific drivers of electoral violence, and it broadens our understanding of why violence is such a persistent threat to electoral stability. Show more