Is there really Granger causality between energy use and output?

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dc.contributor.authorStern, Daviden_AU
dc.contributor.authorBruns, Stephan B.en_AU
dc.contributor.authorGross, Christianen_AU
dc.date.accessioned2014-08-17T23:40:30Z
dc.date.available2014-08-17T23:40:30Z
dc.date.created8/03/2013en_AU
dc.date.updated2015-12-08T02:58:26Z
dc.description.abstractWe carry out a meta-analysis of the very large literature on Granger causality tests between energy use and economic output to determine if there is a genuine effect in this literature or whether the large number of apparently significant results is due to publication and misspecification bias. Our model extends the standard meta-regression model for detecting genuine effects using the statistical power trace in the presence of publication biases by controlling for the tendency to over-fit vector auto regression models in small samples. These over-fitted models have inflated type 1 errors. We find that models that include energy prices as a control variable find a genuine effect from output to energy use in the long-run. A genuine causal effect also seems apparent from energy to output when employment is controlled for and the Johansen procedure is used.en_AU
dc.format.extent49 pagesen_AU
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen_AU
dc.identifier.citationBruns, Stephan B., Gross, C., Stern, David, I., 2013, Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output, Crawford School Working Paper No. 13 - 07, March 2013, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Canberraen_AU
dc.identifier.issn0195-6574en_AU
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/11950
dc.language.isoen_AUen_AU
dc.provenanceFrom author email as at 38/08/2014en_AU
dc.publisherCrawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National Universityen_AU
dc.relationenter http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/dp120101088en_AU
dc.rightsAuthor/s retain copyrighten_AU
dc.sourceThe Energy Journalen_AU
dc.titleIs there really Granger causality between energy use and output?en_AU
dc.typeWorking/Technical Paperen_AU
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen_AU
local.bibliographicCitation.issue4en_AU
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage133en_AU
local.bibliographicCitation.placeofpublicationCanberra, ACT, Australia
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage101en_AU
local.contributor.affiliationStern, D.I., ANU Crawford School of Public Policyen_AU
local.contributor.authoremaildavid.stern@anu.edu.auen_AU
local.contributor.authoruidu9615459en_AU
local.identifier.absfor140206 - Experimental Economicsen_AU
local.identifier.absseo850700 - ENERGY CONSERVATION AND EFFICIENCYen_AU
local.identifier.ariespublicationu5651450xPUB10
local.identifier.citationvolume35
local.identifier.doi10.2139/ssrn.2232455
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-84907507394
local.identifier.uidSubmittedByu5259801en_AU
local.publisher.urlhttp://www.crawford.anu.edu.auen_AU
local.type.statusPublished Versionen_AU

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