Estimating future primary school enrolments for Nepal

Abstract

This study identifies the Government's efforts at different points in time towards the qualitative and quantitative improvement of the Nepalese Education System. More stress is given to studying the New Education System regarding the level and organization of the system with its aims and objectives. The literacy rate, enrolment ratio, pupil-school ratio and pupil-teacher ratio have been analysed by sex and region. Nepalese education is characterised by sex and areal differentials in enrolment, literacy rate and by a high dropout rate, particularly when pupils are promoted from grade one to two. The study highlights some of the causes of such a high dropout rate. The study provides two series of projections of population from the year 1981 to 2001 at intervals of 5 years and the corresponding school age population under the plausible assumptions of fertility and mortality. Nepal's rapid population growth, inherent in the existing high fertility and declining mortality, has tended to produce more children of school age and this study tries to find out whether or not the present education system will be able to absorb the probable growth of children in the future. Because of the paucity of data on key items such as age specific enrolments and the numbers of dropouts and repeaters, future school enrolments have been estimated by adopting the ratio method rather than the cohort method. Finally the requirement for teachers and school places in the near future are considered.